Football and politics have been on my brain a lot lately. Don’t know why that is, maybe the cooler than normal weather we’re getting here in Florida has my brain on a one track mind.
I don’t consider myself a political expert to the level of the people you see draped all over the cable news channels. However, I have two theories about politics: one about primaries, the other about the presidential election in November.
When it comes to the presidential race, most are decided when you just look at three states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Whoever wins at least two out of those three usually win November elections, and the last time that hasn’t happened was in 1960 when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon only taking one of those three states, which was Ohio. It was also back when Florida only had 10 electoral votes. In the 2016 Electoral College, it will have nearly triple that at 29 due to the population boom of the past several decades.
The other theory I have is that primaries are usually won or lost in the Southeast United States. With Bernie Sanders winning New Hampshire and Donald Trump winning on the Republican side, these Southern states will question and perhaps validate whether or not these two candidates have the staying power to win their respective nominations.
Candidates named Clinton usually do well here, so if Bernie can keep some primaries close and weather the storm until the primaries move back to the northeast and west, it’ll be a close race. On the Republican side, with Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each dropping out yesterday, and the remaining six candidates each scoring well in the first two primaries, that race might be tight to the convention in Cleveland this July.
Yes, I’m an Independent pulling for Bernie. If he’s there in November, I’ll definitely fill his bubble with my pen when I get the ballot in the mail. Speaking of which, my ballot for the primaries arrived yesterday, better make my choices and get that out today!