Waiting For Hermine, Or Maybe Ian

itsgonnarain

I’ll probably be keeping an eye on what’s now the 9th Tropical Depression of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season most of the next few days. The weather people in this area have been keeping an eye on this disturbance for a while now, and I mentioned it on this blog last Thursday. It finally became “TD 9” on Sunday afternoon, and is expected to hit around Cedar Key Thursday, which is well to my north, as a tropical storm.

Should the storm get to tropical storm status, it would be named Hermine, unless the tropical depression east of North Carolina becomes one first. In that event, our storm would be Ian.

I’ve lived in Tampa Bay most of my life, except for a year in Charlotte and nine months in Marietta, Georgia. We’ve had many close calls over the years (Elena in 1985 and Charley in 2004 being the more legendary near misses). If a hurricane hits the state, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville don’t usually see it, but southeast and northern Florida do.

When we’re in a storm’s “cone of uncertainty” I’m usually reading the blog of Dr. Jeff Masters over at Weather Underground and the scores of comments people make when there’s a tropical threat out there. I also keep an eye on the Spaghetti Models website, which are those wiggly lines you see that represent where all of the computer models think these storms will go.

Early in the day, not much had changed from what was the original thinking: a sloppy tropical storm that would give the Tampa Bay area about six inches worth of rain around Thursday. As the day progressed, the models moved ever so slightly north, but still a tropical storm all the way.

We should be fine, but it has my attention just in case things change.

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